Rebels close in on another cornered despot




Rebel soldiers loyal to Ivory Coast
opposition leader Alassane Ouattara 

While the Coalition of the Willing whales away on Gaddafi in Libya for being a naughty dictator sitting on top of an oilfield, excuse me, for oppressing his people; the situation in Côte D’Ivoire looks like reaching a grim endgame in a bunker in the country’s capital Abidjan.

Forces loyal to the opposition leader Alassane Ouattara have lain siege to the presidential palace and time is running out for the garrulous Gbagbo.

President Laurent Gbagbo won power in 2000, in an election that was by his own admission “calamitous” and which saw both Alassane Ouattara, and the man who came third in last year's first round, Henri Konan Bedie barred.

Civil war broke out in September 2oo2 and while government forces held on to the capital, they lost control of the northern part of the country and the rebels forces made their headquarters in the city of Bouaké.

Franco-Ivorian relations

Gbagbo: Are these the eyes of a despot? 

France deployed troops from its base in the country to stop any rebel advance. The French said they were protecting their own citizens from danger, but their deployment also aided the government forces. Which is not to say that Franco-Ivorian relations were always cordial under Gbagbo.

Amidst the chaos of this abortive 2002 coup, in hotly disputed circumstances, the government said that former president Robert Guéï had led the coup attempt, and state TV showed pictures of his dead body in the street.

There were however vehement counter-claims that Guéï and fifteen others had been murdered at his home and that his body had been moved to the streets to incriminate him. Alassane Ouattara had taken refuge in the French embassy after his home was burned down.

Gbagbo and the rebel leaders signed accords in January 2003, creating a “government of national unity”. By November 2004 however, the peace agreement had effectively collapsed.

Following the rebels’ refusal to disarm, Gbagbo ordered airstrikes against their stronghold in Bouaké. During one of these airstrikes French soldiers were hit and nine were killed.

The Ivorian government said it was a mistake, but the French were having none of it. Their response was to destroy most of the Ivoirian airforce (2 Su-25 planes and 5 helicopters). This led to violent retaliatory riots against the French in Abidjan. It also bought Gbagbo some time as it allowed him to posture as the great leader of the people opposing the old colonial oppressor.

Elections

Gbagbo signed a peace accord with Guillaume Soro's rebels in 2007 and sought to strengthen his legitimacy at home and abroad by slowly opening the way for the first round of the presidential election that should have been organized in 2005. It was when this election was finally called in 2010 that trouble really flared up again. On 2 December, the Electoral Commission declared that Ouattara had won the election by a margin off 54% to 46%.

Gbagbo’s ruling FPI nevertheless contested the results before the Constitutional Council, charging massive fraud in the northern departments controlled by the rebels of the Forces Nouvelles de Côte d'Ivoire (FNCI).

This was not accepted by the international community which refused to recognise Gbagbo’s inauguration following the Constitutional Council’s ruling in the discredited leader’s favour. Ouattara, recognized as the winner by most countries and the United Nations, organised an alternative inauguration.

Abidjan residents fleeing the fighting  

The UN Security Council adopted a common resolution recognising Alassane Ouattara as winner of the elections and ECOWAS (Economic Community of West Africa States) suspended Côte d'Ivoire from all its decision-making bodies while the African Union also suspended the country's membership.

This afternoon, Channel 4 reported that the site of a third possible massacre has been discovered in Blolequin, after two mass graves were found in Duekoue last month. The UN Asssistant Secretary-General for Human Rights, Ivan Simonovic, told Channel 4 News that they have “reliable information” on the killings, and suggests that there is an ethnic element to the slaughter. Meanwhile, aid agencies report mounting numbers of refugees fleeing into neighbouring Liberia.

French Farce?

To a large extent, French involvement in the Côte D’Ivoire has ensured that the rest of the world doesn’t look too closely at the country’s political problems. After all, by sub-Saharan African standards, Côte D’Ivoire is a shining success story, economically at any rate. Once the goods keep flowing cheaply and plentifully into European markets, we don’t trouble ourselves too much with what the Foreign Legion gets up in the West African bush.

The country is the largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union and constitutes 40% of that union’s total GDP. Côte D’Ivoire is also the world's largest exporter of cocoa, and the fourth largest exporter of goods in sub-Saharan Africa (following South Africa, Nigeria and Angola).

Cash from chaos

The Wall Street Journal is today reporting that the Ivory Coast conflict could prove to be a good thing for Ghana's and Indonesia's cocoa farmers who may have to step up to meet any shortfall in supply.

So at least you know now how to make a killing on your cocoa futures...