Frankie goes to Hollywood but Paddy goes to Holyhead

How quickly people forget...

Emigration memorial in Erris, Co. Mayo 

And who can blame the plain people of Ireland for wanting to excise the memories of those bad old days evoked by Paul Brady in his ode to a lost generation; ‘Nothing but the same old story’?

Who would ever again want to contemplate those days when it was commonplace to witness families being sundered in bus and railway stations up and down the country? Mothers looking on with helpless resignation  as sons and daughters started the lonely journey back to England or America while younger siblings got a sneak preview of what fate had in store for them...

But then, the Croppy grew up in Erris where, even during the Tiger years, the likelihood of the boat or the plane was always high.

It was depressing but rather inevitable therefore that predictions of mass emigration were in the air as 2010 limped to a close.

Irish emigration is expected to increase by up 120,000 during 2010 and 2011, according to Economic and Social Research Institute (ERSI) figures released on 29 December. It is further estimated that the figure would be closer to 160,000 Irish citizens leaving the Republic by 2013.

There has also been some evidence to indicate that the ERSI predictions might not be too far off the mark.  

The Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) estimated that in the year up to April of 2010, over 65,000 people left Ireland, which is certainly comparable with the darkest days when 70,600 people emigrated in 1989 and unemployment stood at 18%.

It should be pointed out however that when inward migration and Eastern European workers returning home are taken into account, it works out that at least 27,700 Irish people left the country to start over in another country in the last 18 months. 

So while unemployment hasn’t yet reached the depths of 1989; according to figures released on 7 December, unemployment  nudged up to 13.4% or in blunt figures: 437,079; a year-on-year increase of over 13,000. In December alone, more than 1,000 people a week had joined the dole queue.

It is widely believed that but for Ireland's tacit reliance on the traditional safety valve of emigration, unemployment could be a whole lot worse.  The Irish Congress of Trade Union’s economic adviser Paul Sweeney,  thought it was clear that unemployment would be much higher were it not for the resumption of mass emigration.

Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton was keen to get in on the act. He offered a more nuanced demographic analysis suggesting that a drop of 3,100 in the number of claimants aged 25 and under was clear evidence that "despite rising overall unemployment, the number of young people signing on has fallen. It seems that people with qualifications are the ones leaving the country."

There is also evidence coming from destination countries that Irish emigration is on the increase. Figures from the Australian Department of Immigration have revealed numbers of Irish nationals permanently emigrating to Australia has increased.  In the financial year ending June 2010, there was a 22% increase  in the numbers of  Irish people emigrating to Australia, representing a figure of around 3,000 Irish citizens who were granted permanent residency.

The UK, as ever, will prove the most capacious dumping ground of Irish talent and diligence. Again the figures are already starting to bear this out. It was reported today that, according to UK Department of Work and Pensions data, that 11,050 Irish people emigrated to Britain last year. The figures have climbed steadily over recent years and this year represents a 37% increase over the past nine years.  (In 2002, the figure was 8,090)

The Deptford Croppy can at least anecdotally corroborate this trend. As a prison visitor and caseworker for the Irish Council for Prisoners Overseas, I have noticed a small but significant increase in referrals for young Irish-born offenders in English gaols. Like I said, a small increase but it’s early days yet.

So while the shleeveens and the chattering classes in Dublin witter and wonder about abolishing the Seanad, the real structural problems in Irish society and its economy persist without redress while another generation gets pushed out of the nest.