Sifting through the entrails....the year ahead

There are no crystal balls. The Deptford Croppy is sadly possessed of neither extra sensory nor pre-cognitive skills. That being the case, we are reduced to the ancient art of sifting through the entrails of the year past to divine glimpses of the year to come. And in fairness, we are about as likely to be correct in our predictions if we’d just had done with it and slaughtered and eviscerated some poultry.

So for what it’s worth, this is what TRWS found when we poked through the offal of 2010...

It’s not good news folks but we’re guessing everyone already knew that 2011 was always shaping up to be the mother and father of all anni horribili (pardon my latin).

Let’s take a look at dear old Blighty for starters. The Coalition limped to the end of the year amid open (and not so open) plotting and recriminations on both sides following the newspaper sting on the constituency ofices of a number of Lib Dem MPs, including (former media darling) Vince Cable.

We didn’t even get from Crimbo to Hogmanay without a sustained drip feed of dire predictions. Here’s a taster.

On 27 December, a report was released by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation which suggested that only a fifth of businesses said they would take on new staff next year. The report went to suggest that nearly a third said they would grow their temporary workforce however, suggesting employers were still nervous about hiring permanent positions.

It was then reported on 29 December that the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) thought that 80,000 private sector and 120,000 public sector jobs will be lost next year. Unemployment is forecast to rise from 7.9% to 9%, or 2.7m, in 2011 as the private sector struggles to create jobs to offset wide-scale state redundancies.

Student Demos: London 2010

As suggested above by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, any jobs that are generated are likely to be part-time or temporary. Meanwhile according to the CIPD's economic forecast, existing employees can expect below-inflation pay rises of around 2%.

Even the Daily Telegraph is worried about the wisdom of this government’s policies. “Next Tuesday, VAT rises by 2.5%, jacking up the cost of living. People with no hope of a pay rise this coming year are already having to contend with the inflation that is the legacy of quantitative easing; this will make things worse. Nor can a rise in interest rates be long postponed. Tax rises when the economy is so weak are indeed brave; or rather, idiotic.”

How this ‘frontloaded’ economic shock treatment is likely to really affect society seems to merit only cursory examination in the established media.

Without even trying to be alarmist, Britain is certainly a lot closer to widespread unrest than most people are prepared to countenance. The evidence is clear: student anger is still unresolved; a deep and festering resentment lingers against the merchant class who have continued to profit throughout this debacle; another huge swathe of the respectable poor are about to dip below the poverty line as interest rate and VAT rises beckon; and one that hasn’t really made anyone’s list: the practical collapse of the UK’s biggest export market (ie Ireland).

The next three months will be critical to the Coalition’s political survival but for UK society, the long-term damage that will be done by unemployment getting anywhere near 2.5m will be counted for years to come.

They're not going away you know...

The news for Ireland is almost certainly worse. The sense of despondency and shocked, weary resignation emanating from that island is metaphysically palpable. But somewhere in there, a still stubborn and stoic optimism smoulders. Perhaps it is the knowledge that Ireland has survived greater vicissitudes than the current depression. No more than our British cousins, adversity brings out the best in Ireland.

Politically speaking, the forthcoming Irish election is likely to be no more than set-dressing; the electoral equivalent of ‘Lannigan’s Ball’ (Brian steps out and Enda steps in...). The prospect for real change is yet to present itself. Expect a big intake of protest independents to the next Dáil (who will, by and large, probably join one or other of the established parties within a couple of elections).

Sinn Féin may finally start to deliver on their position in the south but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it...

In the Six Counties and borderlands, it would be prudent to expect that armed Republican activity will be gearing up as anniversary season beckons. With UK funding falling off a cliff, it would also be realistic to expect more sectarian interface flare-ups and more organised unrest as austerity in 'the wee province' really bites in the months ahead.

In the European context, Spain, Portugal, Greece and indeed Ireland will be in very choppy waters. Furthermore, one can’t help wondering what kind of toxic time-bomb Silvio Berlusconi has been sitting on in Italy and what will happen when they finally get rid of the old goat and get a proper look at the Nation’s accounts.

Beyond Europe? I’m really just spit-balling when I take it outside the EC but I would nevertheless expect that Iran-baiting will continue in the west and Iran will doubtless continue to provide expertise and materiel to Islamic militants engaged in their jihad against the decadent western powers. We hope we're wrong but TRWS thinks that 2011 has real potential to be the year when open hostilities manifest themselves in that particular theatre of operations. 


The war in Afghanistan will more than likely drag on like 'the Troubles' with scorpions and subtitles; punctuated by the obligatory casualty lists, endless democracy initiatives and hearts and minds news stories...


Pakistan meanwhile, is also in for a rough ride in 2011 (or 1432 for my Muslim readers).


Palestine will almost certainly continue to be used cynically as an Arab and Iranian pawn in their undeclared war with Israel while the Israelis in turn will probably continue to treat an indigenous people like criminals and refugees in their own country...

The really worrying thing about North Korea is that, even after 60 years, it still has the same lethal potential to drag the US and China into a shooting war that it had in 1950...

Africa is sadly likely to remain as a disgracefully ignored stain on the conscience of the western world which is now sharing continental exploitation rights with the burgeoning Chinese.  

Russian foreign policy should probably be watched pretty closely in 2011 and perhaps related; zeitgeist-watchers should be following the increasing importance of the online world as a theatre of operations for State Security agencies as well as a saboteurs' and subversives’ playground.